Republicans are expected to gain at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives in the next midterm elections, according to the most recent CBS Battleground Tracker poll.
According to the survey, the Republicans will hold 228 seats, while the Democrats will hold 207.
The most recent estimate, which has a margin of error of 12 seats, is based on a similar algorithm employed by the poll that correctly anticipated the 2018 midterm election results.
“Our 2018 model did very well, consistently forecasting Democrats’ gains in crucial congressional seats and the resulting blue wave in the House. In reality, our high-turnout forecast nailed the end outcome, when historic turnout fueled Democratic wins,” according to the Battleground Tracker poll.
The model also appears to track other recent national surveys that predict a red wave that will likely shift the House to the Republicans. A Friday Rasmussen Reports Poll, for example, estimated that Republicans had a seven-point edge among probable U.S. voters nationwide.
According to the survey, “if congressional elections had taken place today, 49% of Likely U.S. voters would have voted for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat.” Only four percent (4%) would vote for a different candidate, while the remaining five percent (5%) are unsure.”
A Trafalgar Group poll conducted in October found that Republicans had 48.2% of the vote against Democrats’ 42.4%. Another 9.4% of respondents were uncertain.
Cook Political Report also revised its midterm projections, believing that Republicans might gain up to 25 seats. The amount is significantly greater than the previously stated 10-20 seats.
Republicans are increasingly optimistic that they will retake control of the Senate in addition to the House.
Rick Scott, Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted that the Republicans would have at least 52 Senate seats following the 2022 midterm elections. During Sunday’s “State of the Union” on CNN, the senator claimed that his party would triumph on a number of the Senate’s most contentious issues.
“Herschel Walker will win the state of Georgia. We’re keeping all 21 of them. Oz will triumph over Fetterman in Pennsylvania. In Nevada, Adam Laxalt will triumph. But I feel we have every reason to believe we can catch Blake Masters in Arizona and Don Bolduc [in New Hampshire],” Scott said.
Republicans must gain at least 51 seats to break the Senate’s current 50-50 stalemate. Democrats currently control the chamber, thanks to the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
In a heated exchange with President Joe Biden last week, Democratic Majority Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY) expressed concern about specific Senate seats.
“Georgia is the state where we’re going downhill,” Schumer told Biden. “It’s difficult to conceive they’ll go after Herschel Walker.”
The Senate Majority Leader expressed his worries about Pennsylvania as well.
“It appears that the discussion did not harm us too significantly in Pennsylvania as of today,” Schumer stated to the president.