There is no hiding the fact that the Democrats and their operatives in Mainstream Media took full advantage of the disastrous polling coming out of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. On numerous occasions, CNN, MSNBC, et al had Donald Trump losing both elections by dozens and dozens of percentage points — a far cry from the truth.
Now we know for certain what the Democrats were up to: obscure the appearance of Trump’s widespread support using liberal pollsters and the Fake News.
This study proves it.
A recent survey showed without question that political polling ahead of the 2020 election severely overstated Democrat support across the board, as they did in the prior presidential election.
Former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party at large were the targets and liberal pollsters took aim — over and over again.
A professor at Vanderbilt university and member of the American Association for Public Opinion outed the widespread use of inaccurate polling to paint a false picture of Donald Trump and his cohorts in the GOP.
“There was a systematic error that was found in terms of the overstatement for Democratic support across the board,” Josh Clinton said.
State elections were particularly bastardized, according to Clinton’s study. While political polling severely overstated Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020, many of the left-wing candidates in state elections benefited from the over-inflated polling numbers as well. On average, Biden’s support was overstated by around 3 percentage points. Pollsters were even more inaccurate regarding state elections.
In 2020, polling pointed to Democrat gains in the House; instead, Republicans came nearer to closing the majority gap.
The study found that on average, the polls severely overstated Biden’s support with white, rural, and less populated states. A simple explanation is the “silent majority theory” in which many Trump supporters hid their political affiliation, thus obscuring polling numbers.
Polls understated Trump support in nearly every state and by an average of 3.3 percentage points overall. Polls in Senate and gubernatorial races suffered from the same problem.
The AAPOR task force examined 2,858 polls, including 529 national presidential race polls and 1,572 state-level presidential polls. They found that the surveys overstated the margin between President Biden and former President Donald Trump by 3.9 points in the national popular vote and 4.3 percentage points in state polls.
Author: Asa McCue