President Donald Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, D.C., to ink a groundbreaking deal that could break America’s reliance on China for critical minerals. This agreement is no ordinary handshake—it’s a bold move to tap into Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth elements, uranium, graphite, and other strategic materials to strengthen U.S. supply chains.
Trump, never one to leave a deal on the table, is framing this as partial repayment for the billions in U.S. military and humanitarian aid that Ukraine has received since 2022. And why not? While the Biden administration simply gave away taxpayer dollars with no return, Trump is making sure America gets something back. Zelensky, however, is pushing back, claiming Ukraine won’t accept even “10 cents of debt repayment.” That’s rich, considering the war-torn nation has relied heavily on Western funding to survive.
Beyond geopolitics, this deal is about economic and national security. The U.S. desperately needs an alternative to China’s total grip on the global critical minerals market. Beijing currently controls over 60 percent of rare earth mining and nearly 90 percent of rare earth processing, effectively putting a chokehold on industries that depend on lithium, graphite, and uranium—materials crucial for EV batteries, military defense systems, and nuclear energy. For context, the U.S. sourced a third of its graphite from China between 2017 and 2020. That’s a dangerous dependency, especially when dealing with an adversary that would love nothing more than to cripple American manufacturing and defense industries.
On paper, Ukraine’s mineral deposits look promising. The country holds an estimated 45,600 tons of uranium reserves and a staggering 1 billion tons of graphite—representing 20 percent of the world’s known graphite reserves. That’s the kind of potential that could seriously shake up global supply chains. But let’s be real—just because the minerals are there doesn’t mean they can be tapped overnight.
There are major roadblocks to making this work. First, Ukraine’s geological data is outdated—the last comprehensive surveys were conducted by the Soviet Union, meaning modern investors don’t even know what’s truly viable. Second, Ukraine’s infrastructure is in shambles after three years of war, with only a third of its prewar energy capacity intact. Mining and refining are energy-intensive industries, and without a serious investment in rebuilding power grids, this project might never get off the ground. Then, of course, there’s the elephant in the room—security. Many of Ukraine’s mineral-rich areas are either under Russian control or within missile range, making private sector investment highly risky.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) bluntly summed up the problem: “Even in the long-term, the success of the bilateral agreement ultimately hinges on the ability of Ukraine to attract private investment in its mineral resources. The U.S. government cannot command private companies to mine in Ukraine as China and Russia can with their state-owned enterprises.”
And let’s not forget China isn’t going to sit back and let this happen. Beijing has been aggressively expanding its grip on Africa’s mineral wealth, controlling an estimated 80 percent of critical mineral production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). They dominate over 70 percent of the world’s graphite supply, meaning they still call the shots in global markets.
So what happens next? Trump is moving forward with the deal, but the timeline is murky. Even under the best conditions, it could take years—if not decades—before Ukraine’s mineral industry is developed enough to challenge China’s dominance. That said, Trump is a dealmaker, and this agreement sends a powerful signal to the private sector that the U.S. is serious about securing alternative supply chains.
Unlike Biden, who let China run circles around him on the global stage, Trump is taking action to weaken Beijing’s grip and put America first. While the road ahead isn’t easy, this is a critical first step toward ending U.S. dependency on hostile foreign powers.
The battle for critical minerals has begun, and Trump just made his first major move.
