Gallup’s most recent study found a huge shift in how people identify with their party. This will be a huge problem for Democrats in the November election.
According to the study, more Americans said they were Republicans than Democrats. This difference has grown greatly since the last presidential election.
Since 2004, more Americans said they were Democrats than Republicans. But now, 48% say they are Republicans and only 45% say they are Dems, according to the most recent study.
The last time this happened, in 2020, President Biden won the election and 48% of people who answered said they were Democrats, while only 43% said they were Republicans.
That means that the country has moved eight percentage points more in favor of Republicans in just the last four years.
That is especially bad for Dems because Joe Biden won by a very small amount in the electoral college, even though he had a 5% net advantage in voter preference.
“Party membership and voting strongly predict how people will vote, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners choosing for the candidate of their favorite party,” said Jeffrey Jones, senior editor for Gallup.
“Republicans won the electoral college if not also the general vote in years when the lead was smaller, like 2004 and 2016,” he said.
The results also back up what experts like CNN’s Harry Enten have been saying: Democrats need a big lead in the polls.
He said, “The bottom line is this. Do not pop that cork if you are a Kamala Harris fan and would like to rip open the champagne bottle. Trump is still very much in the race. If there is a change in the polls like there has been in the past, Donald Trump will win in the end.”
