A poll by PRRI Research and Ipsos found that Former President Trump is ahead of President Biden in key swing states.
Overall, the poll showed that Biden had a slight edge over Trump in a two-person national race, with 48% of the vote to 46% for Trump. Six percent of those people said neither party.
But Trump clearly beats Biden in key split states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He is ahead of Biden by six points, with 49% to 43% for the 80-year-old nominee.
This study shows that Trump has an edge in key battleground states. This is in line with other studies that looked at the former president’s performance and chances of winning in key split states as 2024 approaches. In September, a poll by Reuters and Ipsos found that Trump had a six-point lead in places like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. That poll showed that Trump had 41% of the vote to Biden’s 35%. The poll did find, though, that almost a quarter of people in the key states were still not sure.
A more recent study by Morning Consult and Bloomberg News discovered that Trump was ahead in most single states, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In that poll, Trump and Biden were tied in Michigan, and Biden was ahead in Nevada. In particular, an October poll from Emerson College also revealed that Biden and Trump were tied in Michigan.
A Quinnipiac poll from early October showed a similar picture. In Pennsylvania, which Trump won by just under a percentage point in 2016, Trump had a two-point advantage over Biden.
At the same time, Trump is still enjoying the fact that he is clearly the favorite to win the Republican primary, making him Biden’s most likely opponent.